Original research · cross-database

Where the voucher falls shortest of market rent

A metro-by-metro analysis of the gap between HUD's 2-bedroom payment standard and advertised market rent, across 371 U.S. metropolitan areas.

371
Metros analyzed
101
Where market beats the standard
270
Where the standard covers

The research question

A Housing Choice Voucher is only as useful as the homes a tenant can actually rent with it. HUD sets a payment standard for each metro, usually between 90% and 110% of the published Fair Market Rent, and that figure caps how much subsidy a Public Housing Authority will pay toward the rent. When advertised market rents climb above that ceiling, voucher holders are pushed toward a shrinking pool of units, longer searches, and, in many cases, neighborhoods with fewer jobs and weaker schools. We asked a simple question with a measurable answer: across the 371 U.S. metropolitan areas we can match, where does the two-bedroom payment standard fall furthest below the advertised two-bedroom market median?

The metros with the widest gap

The table and chart below rank metros by the percentage by which the advertised market median exceeds the HUD payment standard for a two-bedroom unit. The widest gap belongs to Anson County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area, where the market median of $1,138 runs 60.3% above the $1,824 payment standard. A positive gap means the typical advertised unit sits beyond what the voucher will cover at the standard, so a tenant must either find a below-market landlord, negotiate, or shoulder the difference up to the federal 40%-of-income move-in cap.

Top metros by voucher-to-market gap

Percent by which the advertised 2-BR market median exceeds the HUD 2-BR payment standard

% above standard

What this shows The widest gaps cluster in high-demand coastal and Sun Belt metros, where advertised rents have outrun HUD's annually-set standard. In these markets a voucher holder may need to search well outside the most expensive submarkets to lease up at the standard.

Source HUD USER Fair Market Rent (FY2025) × PlainRent advertised medians As of 2025
#Metro Payment standard (2-BR) Market median (2-BR) Gap
1 Anson County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area $1,824 $1,138 60.3%
2 Baker County, FL HUD Metro FMR Area $1,730 $1,103 56.8%
3 Bosque County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area $1,377 $973 41.5%
4 Austin County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area $1,529 $1,095 39.6%
5 Atascosa County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area $1,501 $1,098 36.7%
6 Lyon County, NV HUD Metro FMR Area $1,722 $1,272 35.4%
7 Bond County, IL HUD Metro FMR Area $1,215 $916 32.6%
8 Camden County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area $1,696 $1,287 31.8%
9 Little River County, AR HUD Metro FMR Area $1,071 $880 21.7%
10 Davidson County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area $1,163 $960 21.1%
11 Crook County, OR HUD Metro FMR Area $1,667 $1,385 20.4%
12 Morehouse Parish, LA HUD Metro FMR Area $995 $834 19.3%
13 San Benito County, CA HUD Metro FMR Area $3,446 $2,902 18.8%
14 Cherokee County, KS HUD Metro FMR Area $1,036 $877 18.1%
15 Allen County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area $1,173 $996 17.8%

What the gap means for a voucher holder

A gap of twenty or thirty percent is not an abstract statistic. Consider a household with a two-bedroom voucher in a metro where the payment standard is $1,824 but the typical advertised unit lists at $1,138. To lease that unit the tenant would have to cover the difference out of pocket, and federal rules forbid a Public Housing Authority from approving a lease at initial move-in if the tenant's share would exceed 40% of adjusted monthly income. In practice, the household either keeps searching for a rare unit priced at or below the standard, looks to a landlord willing to negotiate the rent down, or moves to a lower-cost part of the metro. Each of those choices carries a cost in time, stability, or access to opportunity.

The gap also helps explain why voucher utilization, the share of authorized vouchers actually leased, varies so widely between metros. Where the standard comfortably covers the market, holders lease up quickly and the program runs near capacity. Where the gap is wide, vouchers can go unused not because demand is low but because there is nowhere to spend them, and unspent vouchers are a quiet form of lost assistance. Some authorities respond by adopting Small Area Fair Market Rents, which set the standard at the ZIP-code level rather than the metro-wide average, raising the ceiling in high-rent neighborhoods so the voucher reaches further there.

Where the voucher still covers the market

The same analysis surfaces the opposite case. In 270 of the 371 metros we matched, the HUD payment standard meets or exceeds the advertised market median, meaning a voucher holder can, on paper, rent a typical two-bedroom unit without paying above the standard. These are disproportionately smaller and lower-cost markets where advertised rents have not outrun the federal benchmark. The median metro in our ranking shows a gap of about -4.1%, a useful reminder that the headline cases at the top of the table are outliers, not the norm. For a household weighing a move under portability, that contrast is the single most actionable insight here: the same voucher buys very different access depending on where it is used.

Methodology

This analysis joins two datasets at the metropolitan (Core Based Statistical Area) level. The payment standard for each metro is the most recent two-bedroom Fair Market Rent published by HUD USER for that CBSA; the market median is the advertised two-bedroom rent compiled by PlainRent for the same area. The gap is the percentage by which the market median exceeds the payment standard. Every figure on this page is queried live from the PlainVoucher database at the moment you load it, so the ranking reflects the current data vintage rather than a static snapshot. Metros are included only where both a payment standard and an advertised median are available; metros missing either value are excluded rather than shown as a zero. A Public Housing Authority may set its local payment standard anywhere from 90% to 110% of the HUD Fair Market Rent we use here, so the gap a specific tenant faces can be somewhat narrower or wider than the metro figure shown. See our methodology page for the full data pipeline, source vintages, and the definition of the advertised-rent median.

What this analysis cannot tell you

The gap measures a metro-wide average, not the experience of any one renter. Within a single metro, rents vary enormously between neighborhoods, and a household able to search widely may find units far below the advertised median even where the metro-wide gap is large. The advertised-rent median also reflects units that are listed publicly, which can skew toward larger, professionally-managed buildings and away from the smaller landlords who most often accept vouchers. Finally, the figure says nothing about source-of-income discrimination protections, landlord willingness to participate, or the condition of available units, all of which shape whether a voucher can actually be used. Treat this ranking as a map of where the structural pressure is greatest, not as a prediction for an individual search.

Source: HUD USER Fair Market Rent (FY2025) and the PlainRent advertised-rent index, joined per Core Based Statistical Area. Values are queried live from the PlainVoucher database at request time. HUD USER Fair Market Rent (FY2025) and the PlainRent advertised-rent index, joined per Core Based Statistical Area. Values are queried live from the PlainVoucher database at request time.

Sources